Liverpool and Chelsea collide at Anfield with an EFL Cup place at stake, and beneath the glamour of the fixture lies a contest shaped by momentum, absences and two very different tactical instincts. Liverpool arrive as the side carrying the stronger league rhythm and the energy of home advantage, while Chelsea travel with enough attacking quality and historical resilience to turn this into another tense chapter in one of English football’s most enduring rivalries.

Liverpool’s recent record offers the clearest reason for optimism. They have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five Premier League matches, including home victories over Brighton and Bournemouth and a disciplined away success at Brentford. Their only setback in that sequence was a heavy defeat to Manchester City, while a goalless draw with Fulham underlined a defensive solidity that has produced three clean sheets. Andoni Iraola’s side sit fourth in the league, with four wins, three draws and one defeat overall, and their pressing game should be amplified by a partisan Anfield crowd.

Chelsea’s form is less convincing but considerably more volatile. They have taken two wins, a draw and two defeats from their last five league outings, most recently losing 2-0 away to Tottenham. Before that disappointment came a 2-0 victory over Everton and a remarkable 5-1 demolition of Bournemouth, evidence of the attacking surge Xabi Alonso’s team can produce when their movement and counter-attacking speed click into place. Chelsea have scored nine times in those five matches, but they have also conceded eight, making them dangerous and vulnerable in equal measure.

The most significant team-news blow falls on the visitors. Cole Palmer’s suspension removes Chelsea’s principal creative reference point, a player capable of unlocking a compact defence with a pass, a carry or a moment of individual invention. Injuries to Joao Pedro, Emiliano Martínez and Reece James further disrupt Alonso’s options, while doubts over Pep Chavarría, Emmanuel Emegha and Jamie Gittens could leave Chelsea relying heavily on a reshaped attack. Liverpool are hardly unscathed: Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Giovanni Leoni and Dominik Szoboszlai are unavailable, with Florian Wirtz and Victor Munoz doubtful. The hosts, however, appear better equipped to absorb the disruption.

The tactical battle should begin in midfield. Liverpool are expected to use a 4-2-3-1, pressing high and trying to establish territorial control through Alexis Mac Allister and the predicted inclusion of Ryan Gravenberch. Their aim will be to win the ball before Chelsea can build cleanly, then attack the spaces around the full-backs with speed and short combinations. Chelsea’s likely response is a compact defensive shape built around Moisés Caicedo and Romeo Lavia, with the visitors looking to survive the initial pressure and spring forward through Estevao and Rogers.

That contrast could define the evening. Liverpool’s high defensive line will leave room behind it, particularly if Chelsea can evade the first wave of pressure. Yet Chelsea’s own defensive structure will be tested by Liverpool’s width and movement, with Bradley Barcola and Cody Gakpo expected to threaten from the flanks. In the penalty area, Alexander Isak’s physical presence would give Liverpool a focal point against Wesley Fofana and Levi Colwill, while Chelsea will look to Danny Welbeck to occupy Virgil van Dijk and Ronald Araújo and turn defensive clearances into attacking platforms.

History offers little comfort to either side. Liverpool hold the overall advantage, with 87 wins to Chelsea’s 67 and 47 draws, but the modern rivalry has been remarkably tight. Since 2010, Liverpool have won 14 of 41 meetings, Chelsea 11, with 16 draws. The last five encounters have produced two Chelsea victories, one Liverpool win and two draws, including a 1-1 stalemate at Anfield in May. Their most recent cup meeting, however, belongs to Liverpool: a 1-0 victory over Chelsea in the 2024 League Cup final. Close margins and emotional, attritional contests have become the fixture’s signature.

Expect Liverpool to seize the initiative in the opening half-hour, using the crowd and their press to force Chelsea into hurried decisions. An early goal would stretch the visitors and create the open game Liverpool prefer. If Chelsea weather that storm, the match could become far more intricate, with their counter-attacks growing in threat as Liverpool’s midfield legs begin to tire. The hour mark may prove decisive, when both managers are likely to turn to their benches and the contest’s shape could change rapidly.

The report points towards goals, with both teams’ recent defensive records and attacking tendencies making a cagey scoreless night difficult to envisage. Chelsea have scored freely enough to threaten, even without Palmer, while Liverpool’s home pressure should create repeated opportunities. Liverpool’s momentum and Anfield advantage make them the narrow favourites, but Chelsea’s record in tight meetings means a comfortable victory looks unlikely. The prediction is Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea, with the key factor being whether Chelsea can escape Liverpool’s first wave of pressure without conceding. If they cannot, the hosts should have enough control and attacking depth to edge through; if they can, this rivalry may produce another late, nerve-shredding twist.