Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen meet again under the floodlights at Signal Iduna Park, but this time the stakes are knockout survival. Just two and a half weeks after Bremen clawed back a two-goal deficit to draw 2-2 in the Bundesliga, Dortmund have the chance to turn frustration into progress and send a warning through the DFB-Pokal. For Werder, the mission is clear: reproduce the late defiance that stunned their hosts and extend a remarkable recent cup record against them.

Dortmund arrive as the stronger, deeper and more polished side. Their last five competitive matches have produced three wins and two draws, including a 1-0 Bundesliga victory over Eintracht Frankfurt, a 2-1 Champions League success against Sabah FK and a ruthless 5-0 DFB-Pokal demolition of HEBC. They have scored 10 times across that run while conceding only three, and their Bundesliga defensive average of 0.57 goals allowed per match underlines the control Niko Kovac is demanding.

Werder’s form is similarly unbeaten in five, but it carries a different character. Ole Werner’s side have mixed two wins with three draws, scoring 10 goals yet conceding nine. Victories over Mainz and Augsburg revealed their attacking bite, while the recent comeback at Dortmund demonstrated their refusal to surrender. The concern is that their defensive structure has repeatedly wavered, and an extensive injury list threatens to make a demanding night even harder.

That list is particularly damaging in Bremen’s engine room and defensive ranks. Skelly Alvero, Senne Lynen, Jens Stage, J. Njinmah, Felix Agu, Mitchell Weiser and several others are unavailable, while goalkeeper Karl Hein, Niklas Stark, Youri Regeer and Eren Dinkçi remain doubts. Dortmund are not unscathed themselves, with Konstantinos Karetsas, Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias and Justin Lerma out, Ramy Bensebaini suspended and Alexander Meyer doubtful. Yet the hosts retain considerably greater depth, an advantage that may become decisive as the match enters its final quarter.

Kovac is expected to set Dortmund up in a 3-4-2-1, using the wing-backs to stretch Bremen and the two advanced midfielders to attack the spaces around a high defensive line. Joey Veerman, Jobe Bellingham, Ethan Nwaneri and Marcel Sabitzer will be tasked with winning the midfield contest and turning possession into quick, vertical attacks. Dortmund’s best route may come through transitions: if Bremen’s aggressive press is beaten, the home side can attack a backline already weakened by injuries.

Bremen are unlikely to retreat passively. Their projected 4-2-4 shape should seek to disrupt Dortmund’s build-up high up the pitch before switching quickly toward Niclas Füllkrug. The former Dortmund striker is the obvious danger, having scored six goals in his last four appearances, including both Bremen goals in the recent 2-2 draw. His movement, aerial strength and instinct inside the penalty area will test Dortmund’s centre-backs, potentially including the returning Nico Schlotterbeck, who also scored in that previous meeting.

At the other end, Serhou Guirassy represents the battle Bremen can least afford to lose. The Dortmund striker has registered 21 shots in his last five appearances and has the movement to punish any hesitation from a makeshift defence. Marco Grüll, Bremen’s leading creator with six assists this season, will be equally important; his delivery and timing could determine whether Füllkrug receives enough service to keep the visitors alive.

The historical balance strongly favours Dortmund. Across 41 meetings, they have won 25 times to Bremen’s seven, with nine draws. Dortmund have taken six of the last 10 encounters, although that dominance comes with an important caveat: Bremen have won their last three DFB-Pokal meetings with Dortmund, all in the round of 16. The latest league draw only heightens the sense that this is no routine mismatch. These fixtures are traditionally open, with over 1.5 goals landing in 88 per cent of meetings, over 2.5 in 63 per cent and both teams scoring in 61 per cent.

The match could begin cautiously, with Dortmund wary of repeating the collapse that allowed Bremen to recover late last time. An early home goal, however, would likely unlock the contest. Bremen’s response should be fearless, and their high press could create dangerous turnovers if Dortmund’s makeshift midfield loses composure. Should the score remain close into the final stages, the visitors’ depleted squad may struggle to match Dortmund’s energy and rotation options, while Bremen’s desperation could leave further gaps for Guirassy to exploit.

Dortmund should ultimately have enough quality and home authority to advance, but a comfortable evening is far from guaranteed. The prediction is a Dortmund victory in an open game, with over 2.5 goals a strong possibility. The decisive factor will be whether Bremen can release Füllkrug behind Dortmund’s defensive reshuffle before the hosts’ superior depth and attacking pressure take control.