Belgium and France collide in Brussels with more than Nations League points at stake: two heavyweight nations, two new managerial projects and a rivalry increasingly tilted toward Les Bleus. Mark van Bommel’s Belgium will seek to turn home advantage into an early statement, while Zinedine Zidane’s France arrive with the confidence of a side that has repeatedly found a way past their neighbours.

Belgium’s recent form offers genuine encouragement. They have won three of their last five matches, drawing once and losing once, and opened their Nations League campaign with a convincing 2-0 victory over Italy. Their attack has carried real force, with Romelu Lukaku, Charles De Ketelaere and Youri Tielemans among those contributing goals. Belgium have also scored in 15 of their last 17 matches, a consistency that should give Van Bommel confidence as he installs an aggressive, transition-focused style.

Yet the warning signs are equally clear. Belgium’s defensive record has been less reliable, and the absences of Thibaut Courtois, Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard strip away experience, pace and creativity. Courtois’s absence is especially significant against a French attack built to punish hesitation. Dodi Lukebakio may be asked to shoulder more of the direct threat, while Kevin De Bruyne remains the central figure in Belgium’s attempt to control the contest.

France arrive with a slightly more uneven recent record, having won three and lost two of their last five, but their ceiling remains formidable. They began this Nations League campaign with a 1-0 victory over Turkey and have scored at least twice in six of their last eight matches. Mbappé’s knee ligament injury is a major blow, removing France’s most devastating individual weapon and their captain, but it does not leave Zidane short of attacking solutions.

Ousmane Dembélé is expected to assume a leading role, combining acceleration, dribbling and unpredictability from wide areas. Michael Olise offers another incisive outlet, capable of receiving between the lines before driving into the spaces Belgium may leave behind. France’s depth allows them to replace Mbappé’s influence collectively, with a disciplined midfield and a defence able to absorb pressure before launching at speed.

The tactical battle should be absorbing from the opening whistle. Belgium are likely to press high and seek to establish possession through De Bruyne, perhaps in a 4-3-3 or more adventurous 4-2-4. De Bruyne’s movement into the half-spaces will be crucial: if he can evade the attention of Aurélien Tchouaméni and Adrien Rabiot, Belgium can expose the gaps around France’s midfield screen and feed Lukaku early.

France, however, will be content to make Belgium work for territorial control. Whether Zidane opts for a 4-3-3 or a compact 5-3-2, the plan should be clear: remain structurally sound, then attack the space behind Belgium’s high line. Dembélé and Olise will test the Belgian full-backs relentlessly, particularly if the home side’s pressure becomes disjointed. Lukaku’s duel with William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano could define Belgium’s ability to turn possession into genuine chances; his hold-up play must bring runners into the game rather than leave him isolated.

History adds another layer of pressure. Across 78 meetings, Belgium lead narrowly with 30 victories to France’s 29, alongside 19 draws. But the recent competitive record belongs emphatically to France. Les Bleus have won five of the last six encounters, including all three recent Nations League meetings. They won 2-1 in Brussels in October 2024, 2-0 at home the previous month and edged Belgium 1-0 at Euro 2024. France also prevailed in the 2021 Nations League semi-final and the 2018 World Cup semi-final. Belgium’s last competitive win over France came as far back as September 1981, a statistic that hangs over this fixture like a stubborn shadow.

The match is likely to begin at a furious pace, with Belgium attempting to seize control and France probing for the first opening on the break. An early goal could radically alter the pattern. If France strike first, Belgium will be forced to commit more bodies forward, creating precisely the spaces their opponents crave. If Belgium score, the home crowd could provide the energy for a sustained spell of pressure. The decisive phase may arrive between the 60th and 75th minutes, when fatigue stretches the field and substitutions begin to reshape the contest.

The report points toward a high-quality, open encounter in which both teams can score, with France’s transition game and psychological advantage ultimately proving decisive. Belgium’s creativity and home advantage should make this uncomfortable, but the defensive absences leave too many questions unanswered. The prediction is France to win, with a likely scoreline of Belgium 1-2 France; the key factor to watch is whether Belgium can protect the space behind their high line when Dembélé and Olise begin to run.